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Fruit Juice Matters

06/09/2016 18:15:25
Tropicanas bold shift to PET

21/08/2012 11:23:00
Shrinkage in the supply

27/09/2010 15:26:00
Changes Boost Consecitrus

27/08/2010 11:53:00
* Laranja madura

11/09/2009 09:31:00
Closing data for the 2016/2017 season



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COMMITMENT TO TRANSPARENCY

This document is divided into two parts. The first presents the information related to the 2016/2017
season, which was finalized in April 2017. The second provides information related to the 2017/18 season, estimated by the Fund for Citrus Plant Protection (Fundecitrus).

Closing data for the 2016/2017 season

Based on an individual and confidential data compilation carried out by an independent auditing firm, the Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters (CitrusBR) provides the following information related to the 2016/2017 processing season, ended on April 2017:

• Total amount of 40.8 boxes of oranges processed in the 2016/2017 season;
• Total industrial yield in the 2016/2017 season in 40.8 kg boxes to produce one ton of concentrated
juice equal to 66º Brix (FCOJ equivalent);
• Total production of FCOJ equivalent in the 2016/2017 season.

In the 2016/17 season, CitrusBR members processed a total of 185,569,000 orange boxes of 40.8 kg with an obtained and average juice yield on fruit of 286.37 boxes of oranges required to produce one metric ton of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent which resulted in a total production of 648,004 tons of FCOJ equivalent.
For all non-members of CitrusBR, it is reasonable to estimate a total processing volume of 16.3 million boxes of oranges in the same season, that with an average juice yield on fruit of 303 boxes of oranges required to produce one ton of FCOJ 66 Brix equivalent would have resulted in a production of 54 thousand tons of FCOJ 66 Brix equivalent. Assuming these figures, it is estimated today that the São Paulo and Minas Gerais Triangle citrus belt industries processed in total 201.8 million boxes of oranges of 40.8 kg and produced 701.9 thousand tons of FCOJ equivalent.

Fresh fruit market

According to the last Fundecitrus Crop Estimate Revision published last April 11, the 2016/2017 season ended with a total production of 245.3 million boxes of oranges in the São Paulo and Minas Gerais Triangle citrus belt. Assuming a total industry processing of 201.8 million boxes for the same period, we conclude that the domestic fresh fruit market consumed 43 million boxes of 40.8 kg.

Processing yield in the 2016/2017 season

The average juice yield on fruit of 286.37 boxes needed to produce one ton of FCOJ 66 Brix equivalent is 5.2% better than the 302.2 experienced in the 2015/2016 season according to below history series.



Supply, Demand and Ending Inventories for the 2016/2017 season

Considering all above mentioned forecasts; adding the orange juice production in the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná (destined for São Paulo industries), and with an estimated total demand of 999,201 tons of FCOJ equivalent in the 2016/17 season, we revised our forecasts for the total industry carryout by June 30, 2017 down to 68,105 tons of FCOJ 66 Brix equivalent as described below:


Equilibrium of global inventories of orange juice during the 2017/2018 season

Even with the increased total orange crop as forecasted by Fundecitrus for the 2017/2018 season, CitrusBR foresees an equilibrium situation for the worldwide inventories of Brazilian orange juice in the coming 12 to 18 months. This will allow its members and non-members to resume normality in the
supply of orange juice to its global markets.
In this context, it´s reasonable to estimate that by June 30, 2018 the global inventory of Brazilian orange juice will reach levels in between 200,000 and 300,000 tons of FCOJ 66 Brix equivalent, depending on confirmation of final carry-out volumes for June 30th 2017, fruit maturity and juice yield on fruit evolution in the coming 3 to 4 months as well as the levels of consumption of the product expected in the global markets in the coming season.


Following its commitment to transparency, CitrusBR will publish its next statement by late July or early August 2017, as soon as the confidential compilation of physical inventories of Brazilian orange juice are concluded and with the latest updated data pertaining to all of the above Supply, Demand &
Closing inventory data.

IBIAPABA NETTO
Executive Director